Buyer leverage held. Inventory started tightening.
June did not flip the market back to sellers. It did something more interesting: the extra room buyers had been gaining started to compress. Inventory fell, pending activity jumped, and prices held.
June 2026 MSA data · Unlock MLS · published July 14, 2026
01 : Market Pulse
The balance was still buyer-friendly. It just stopped loosening.
The headline was not a sudden shift in power. It was the first clear sign that buyer leverage was no longer expanding.
61%
Buyer Advantage
4.4 months of inventory, 62 average days on market, and a 93.9% close-to-list ratio still favored prepared buyers.
39%
Seller Advantage
Pending sales rose 13.2% YoY while active inventory fell 14.8%. Demand was absorbing the supply cushion.
21%
Renter Advantage · directional
Median rent was nearly flat, while new lease listings fell 12.5% and active lease inventory fell 25.1%. Score uses the objective-only renter method. No month-over-month renter delta is shown.
The July read: the market was still negotiable, but the easiest part of the cycle may have been behind us. Less inventory and more pending activity started to change the texture of the market before the headline prices changed much at all.
$450KMedian sale price+1.1% YoY
4.4Months inventoryfrom 5.4 last year
2,994Pending sales+13.2% YoY
93.9%Close-to-list+0.2 pts YoY
02 : Key Metrics
The pressure points
These are the numbers that explain why July felt different from the months before it.
$450K+1.1% YoY
Median Sale Price
Prices edged higher while buyers still held leverage.
+
The MSA median rose to $450,000, up 1.1% year over year. The important part is that prices held while inventory tightened and pending activity accelerated. Price was not leading the story this month.
13,245-14.8% YoY
Active Listings
The supply cushion was shrinking quickly.
+
Active listings were down 14.8% year over year. The market still had choice, but it had less slack. This was the clearest sign that the easy-buyer phase was no longer getting easier.
62flat YoY
Average Days on Market
Still enough time for strategy, not enough to assume every listing waits.
+
Average days on market held at 62 days, exactly where it was a year earlier. Homes were not flying, but market time had stopped stretching. That matters when supply is falling at the same time.
2,994+13.2% YoY
Pending Sales
The strongest demand signal in the June report.
+
Pending sales jumped 13.2% year over year. Buyers were using their leverage, not just watching from the sidelines. That is the number that makes shrinking inventory more important.
93.9%+0.2 pts YoY
Average Close-to-List
Negotiation room remained real, even as activity improved.
+
The average close was 93.9% of original list price. That does not translate into a universal 6.1% discount. It does confirm that asking price and closing price were still meaningfully different across the market.
03 : What The Numbers Say
What changed underneath the headline
The market did not announce a turning point. It showed one in the relationship between demand and supply.
+13.2%
Demand showed up before prices did
Buyer demand showed up most clearly in pending contracts. That matters more than trying to read the entire market from a 1.1% price move.
-14.8%
The cushion started disappearing
Active listings fell sharply from a year earlier. Buyer leverage was still real, but the supply backdrop was moving away from maximum leverage.
1.6
Renters had fewer choices, not higher prices
Lease inventory sat at 1.6 months and active lease listings fell 25.1% YoY. Renters were not facing surging rents, but they were facing fewer choices.
04 : County View
Where the balance broke differently
The MSA average hides how uneven the market was. Tap a county to see where buyers had more room and where that room was already shrinking.
Travis County: demand strengthened while inventory tightened.
$542KMedian · +4.0% YoY
4.7Months inventory
+6.7%Closed sales YoY
94.2%Close-to-list
Haus take: Travis had more sales, higher pending activity, and 17.7% fewer active listings than a year earlier. The county was still negotiable, but clearly tighter than the broader buyer-market stereotype.
Williamson County: the tightest major-county inventory picture in this set.
$426.8KMedian · +0.5% YoY
3.7Months inventory
+4.3%Closed sales YoY
93.8%Close-to-list
Haus take: 3.7 months of inventory plus pending sales up 14.5% meant Williamson was the least buyer-heavy of the four major counties shown here.
Hays County: more balanced supply, but much weaker closed-sale volume.
$400KMedian · +9.0% YoY
4.8Months inventory
-22.8%Closed sales YoY
93.6%Close-to-list
Haus take: Hays was not behaving like Travis or Williamson. Closed sales were down sharply, while pending activity was almost flat. Local comps mattered more than the metro headline.
Bastrop County: the deepest buyer leverage among these four.
$344.9KMedian · -6.8% YoY
6.6Months inventory
+0.7%Closed sales YoY
93.5%Close-to-list
Haus take: Bastrop had the most inventory and the weakest median-price movement in this county set, while pending sales still rose 14.8%. Buyers had room, but the market was not frozen.
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05 : What Brings You Here
What this meant for your move
The same market data can point to very different decisions depending on what you are trying to do.
You had leverage, but the window was getting narrower.
The market still gave buyers time and negotiating room, but the 14.8% drop in active inventory and 13.2% jump in pending activity were the numbers to respect.
Use stale listings firstTime on market still changed the conversation.
Do not confuse leverage with no competitionDemand was clearly improving.
Know the county3.7 months in Williamson was very different from 6.6 in Bastrop.
Demand was improving, but pricing still had to earn the buyer.
Higher pending activity and shrinking inventory helped sellers, but the 93.9% average close-to-list ratio still showed a market where overpricing had consequences.
Watch pending activityDemand was stronger than the closed-sale headline suggested.
Price against current supplyNot last year's asking prices.
Use location properlyWilliamson and Bastrop were not the same market.
Rents were almost flat. Available choices were not.
Median rent was $2,195, down 0.2% YoY, while active lease inventory fell 25.1%. The renter story was more about tightening selection than rising price.
Compare renewal vs. movingUse the full cost, not just advertised rent.
Watch inventoryFewer active rentals can matter even when median rent is flat.
Stay flexibleRenting can still be the right decision without being the cheaper headline.
The Haus Index is named for the month it is published. The most current complete monthly Unlock MLS report available in July covers June.
What does a 61 Buyer Advantage score mean?
It is a directional leverage score, not a forecast. Above 50 means the current mix of inventory, pricing, market time, close-to-list behavior, pending activity and sales pace leans more favorable to buyers than sellers.
Why is the renter score shown as directional?
The renter score is 21%. It uses the objective-only renter method: Lease MOI, new lease listings, and rent trend. The two former judgment inputs are excluded rather than guessed, and no month-over-month renter delta is shown.
Does the MSA number tell me what my neighborhood is doing?
No. It gives the regional backdrop. County, ZIP, price band, property type and condition can behave very differently.
Data: June 2026 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA sales and leasing data from Unlock MLS / Austin Board of REALTORS®. Monthly report data updated July 7, 2026; public June and Mid-Year release published July 14, 2026.
