Closed sales fell 3.4%, but pending sales jumped 14.3%. May's surface numbers looked soft. The pipeline underneath them was already moving.
May 2026 MSA data · Unlock MLS · published June 11, 2026
01 : Market Pulse
The closings lagged the change.
The useful signal was the gap between what had already closed and what was moving toward closing next.
65%
Buyer Advantage
4.7 months of inventory, 61 DOM, and a 94.5% close-to-list ratio kept negotiating room on the table.
35%
Seller Advantage
Pending sales rose 14.3% YoY even as closed sales fell 3.4%. Demand looked stronger than the final sales count.
37%
Renter Advantage · directional
Median rent fell 2.1% YoY while new lease listings fell 12.0% and active lease inventory fell 21.3%. Score uses the objective-only renter method. No month-over-month renter delta is shown.
The June read: May looked slower in the rearview mirror than it did in the pipeline. Closed sales were down, but pending activity was already pointing to stronger demand ahead.
$440KMedian sale price-0.9% YoY
4.7Months inventoryfrom 5.0 last year
3,310Pending sales+14.3% YoY
61Average DOMflat YoY
02 : Pressure Points
Where the shift showed up first
The market was sending two different messages depending on whether you looked backward at closings or forward at contracts.
$440K-0.9% YoY
Median Sale Price
A slight decline, not a reset.
+
The MSA median came in at $440,000, down 0.9% from a year earlier. That is modest enough to read as price stability with negotiating room, not a market breaking lower.
3,310+14.3% YoY
Pending Sales
The strongest forward-looking demand signal in the report.
+
Pending contracts rose 14.3% year over year. That was the clearest sign that buyers were adapting to current rates and prices instead of waiting for a perfect setup.
12,508-16.6% YoY
Active Listings
Still enough supply for choice, but far less than last May.
+
Active listings were down 16.6% year over year. The market still favored buyers overall, but the supply backdrop was already becoming less generous.
61flat YoY
Average Days on Market
Enough time for strategy. Not enough to ignore good listings.
+
Average market time held at 61 days. That gave buyers breathing room while still rewarding sellers who priced accurately and presented well.
94.5%flat YoY
Average Close-to-List
The market was still negotiating, not just accepting asking prices.
+
Homes closed at an average of 94.5% of original list price. That gap kept terms, pricing strategy, repairs, and credits relevant even as pending activity strengthened.
03 : What Shifted
The pipeline told a different story
The month made more sense once you stopped treating closed sales as the only measure of demand.
+14.3%
Pending demand kept climbing
Buyers were increasingly willing to move with the market they had. That is different from a market driven by panic, frenzy, or a sudden rate drop.
-16.6%
The inventory cushion was already shrinking
There was still meaningful choice, but less of it than a year earlier. Buyer leverage remained real, but it was not expanding.
-2.1%
Rent got cheaper while options got scarcer
Median rent declined, but active lease inventory fell 21.3%. For renters, price and availability were moving in different directions.
04 : County View
Where that gap was widest
Tap a county to see where demand was accelerating, where inventory stayed loose, and where closed sales told a very different story.
Travis County: buyers were active even as the median moved lower.
$535KMedian · -3.9% YoY
4.8Months inventory
+20.3%Pending sales YoY
94.8%Close-to-list
Haus take: Travis had softer pricing and less inventory at the same time. Pending activity surged, which made it a better demand story than the median-price headline suggested.
Williamson County: tighter supply and stronger pending demand.
$406KMedian · -4.5% YoY
4.2Months inventory
+17.8%Pending sales YoY
94.3%Close-to-list
Haus take: Williamson was already tighter than the broader MSA. Buyers had leverage, but the combination of 4.2 months inventory and stronger pending activity made that leverage more selective.
Hays County: the outlier in the demand story.
$390KMedian · +1.6% YoY
5.1Months inventory
-28.7%Closed sales YoY
94.3%Close-to-list
Haus take: Hays did not share the same momentum. Closed sales fell sharply and pending sales were down 7.4%, even while the median price rose.
Bastrop County: the most negotiating room in this group.
$350KMedian · flat YoY
6.4Months inventory
+7.9%Pending sales YoY
93.2%Close-to-list
Haus take: Bastrop still offered the deepest buyer leverage of the major counties shown here, even with pending activity improving.
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05 : Your Move
What to do when the headline lags reality
The same data can support different decisions depending on what you are trying to accomplish.
The opportunity was not lower prices everywhere. It was better terms with enough time to think.
May still rewarded prepared buyers, especially on listings that had been sitting, but stronger pending activity meant the market was not waiting around for everyone.
Use market time61 DOM kept stale listings relevant.
Negotiate beyond priceThe close-to-list gap still left room for terms.
Watch local demandTravis and Williamson were already tightening.
The rent headline improved. The choice set did not.
Median rent fell 2.1% year over year, but active lease inventory dropped more than 21%. Renters had some price relief without the same breadth of options.
Compare total costRenewal and moving are not just rent numbers.
Watch availabilityFewer listings can matter more than a small rent decline.
Stay flexibleRenting can still be the better decision.
The Haus Index is named for the month it is published. The most current complete monthly Unlock MLS report available in June covers May.
What does a 65 Buyer Advantage score mean?
It is a directional leverage score, not a forecast. The current mix of inventory, price movement, market time, close-to-list behavior, pending activity, and sales pace leaned more favorable to buyers than sellers.
Why is renter still shown as directional?
The renter score is 37%. It uses the objective-only renter method: Lease MOI, new lease listings, and rent trend. The two former judgment inputs are excluded rather than guessed, and no month-over-month renter delta is shown.
Why did pending sales rise while closed sales fell?
They measure different stages of the transaction cycle. Closed sales reflect deals completed in May, while pending sales show contracts moving toward closing. That is why pending activity can improve before closed sales catch up.
Data: May 2026 Austin-Round Rock-San Marcos MSA sales and leasing data from Unlock MLS / Austin Board of REALTORS®. Public monthly release published June 11, 2026. Detailed UnlockStats report updated June 8, 2026.
