If you bought at peak in 2022, your equity picture is still real
Austin median is $412K versus $550K at peak. That gap is real. But what it actually means depends entirely on your situation. Answer 2 questions to get your read.
Quick Equity Check
2 questions. Get a personalized picture of where you stand.
Based on current Austin market data (Unlock MLS / ABOR, March 2026) and your situation
The numbers, without the spin
Where Austin prices are, where they came from, and what the historical pattern suggests.
The $138,000 gap from peak is real. But here is what most people are not factoring in: prices already ticked up $15,000 month over month from February to March 2026. The rate of decline decelerated throughout Q1. This is stabilization, not continued freefall.
The correction was driven by a specific set of conditions: rate shock in 2022, overbuilding, and a pullback from pandemic-era demand. Those conditions are reversing. Rates came off their highs, new listings are running 24.8% below last year, and pending contracts are up 6.9% year over year.
Your situation determines what the gap actually costs you
Four different scenarios. Four different reads on what to do next.
Austin Market Context
Prices ticked up $15K MoM in March. New listings down 24.8% YTD vs 2025. The floor is forming while you hold.
What the gap actually costs you
- Your payment did not change. The paper loss is unrealized.
- Your equity depends on your down payment and paydown, not the metro median.
- Austin has recovered from every correction cycle in its modern history, typically within 4 to 6 years.
- The correction conditions are reversing: rates off highs, supply tightening, demand returning.
If you are holding, the only real money at risk is if TCAD has over-assessed you. That is recoverable before May 15.
87% of Travis County protests succeed. Avg savings $1,404.
Austin Market Context
New listing volume running 24.8% below last year. Pending contracts up 6.9% YoY. Sellers in spring 2026 face less competition than at any point since early 2023.
What you actually need to know
- The metro median is not your number. Your actual value depends on neighborhood, price tier, and condition.
- The correction was not uniform. Well-located homes outperformed the average significantly.
- Listing in Q2 2026 means fewer competing listings and returning buyer demand.
- Sellers who price correctly on day one are closing near ask. Those who chase are sitting.
Get a current CMA for your specific address before assuming the gap costs you what the metro median suggests.
Current CMA based on live MLS data for your address.
Austin Market Context
ADU income in Austin: $1,500 to $2,500/month. Austin HOME Initiative removed most barriers. No parking required.
Your options
- HELOC: Flexible line against your equity. Rates have come down from 2023 highs.
- ADU: Adds rental income plus assessed value. Build cost $80K to $150K. Most Austin homeowners break even in 3 to 5 years.
- Cash-out refinance: Only consider if your current rate is already above today's market.
The right option depends entirely on your loan-to-value ratio today, which requires knowing your actual current value.
We pull your estimated value and walk through which option fits.
Austin Market Context
Current 30-year rates: 6.5 to 7%. If you locked in at 3 to 4%, selling means giving up that rate. Your monthly advantage versus a new buyer on the same home is $800 to $1,200/month.
What your situation actually looks like
- Your payment has not changed. You are paying below-market financing on an appreciating asset.
- Rate lock is why supply stayed low. You are not trapped. You are holding a financial advantage that new buyers cannot get.
- Selling means starting over at 6.5%+. The math on replacing your rate almost never works in your favor right now.
- Your home is recovering. You will benefit from the appreciation cycle while paying below-market costs.
The one thing worth doing: make sure TCAD has not over-assessed you. You may be paying peak taxes on a corrected asset.
Free to protest. Avg savings $1,404. Deadline May 15.
Your TCAD assessment may still be priced at peak. You can fight that.
TCAD assessments move slower than the market. If your home was assessed near peak value, you may be paying property taxes on a number that is $100K+ higher than what comparable homes are actually selling for today.
Look up your assessed value at traviscad.org
Search your address. Your assessed value is listed there. Compare it to what comparable homes are actually selling for today. That gap is your argument.
File a protest online before May 15
Free to file. You do not need evidence upfront. Filing reserves your right to protest. Takes about 10 minutes. You can add comparable sales data later.
Submit evidence: recent comparable sales
Pull 3 to 5 homes that sold near yours in the last 6 months at prices below your assessed value. TCAD informal hearings typically result in a reduction without a full hearing.
Get your actual equity picture
The metro median tells you a direction. Your specific address tells you a number. Leave your info and we will pull a current CMA and give you a clear read on where you stand.
What 2022 buyers are actually asking right now
Straight answers from current market data. No spin.
Last updated: April 2026. Data from Unlock MLS / Austin Board of REALTORS, Feb 2026 closed data reported March 11, 2026.