Market Intelligence · 2026

What I'd do in Austin (2026)

Pick what you're considering — I'll give you the clearest first move. No pressure. Just the signal without the noise.

If I were buying

Play for leverage — not speed.

Most buyers don't lose because they waited. They lose because they rushed into the wrong deal. In this market, you have more negotiating room than you think — but only if you stay disciplined.

62% buyer advantage index
50-60 avg days on market
$412K metro median (Feb '26)
DO THIS FIRST

Decide your comfort payment — not your max approval

A lender will approve you for more than you should spend. Take your gross monthly income, multiply by 0.28. That number — including taxes, insurance, and PMI — is your real ceiling. In Austin, property taxes run 2.1-2.4%, which adds hundreds per month that most calculators miss.

THEN

Focus on homes sitting longer — that's where real leverage is

Homes 30+ days on market are where sellers have recalibrated expectations. Ask for closing cost contributions (2-3% of purchase price is normal right now), keep your inspection contingency, and do not waive the appraisal. Terms and concessions can matter more than the number on the sign.

Do Ask for seller concessions on days-on-market homes. The market supports it.
Do Check TSAHC before talking to any lender — up to 5% in down payment assistance if you qualify.
Don't Fall in love with the list price. Price reductions are common and rarely the bottom.
Don't Waive inspections or appraisal contingencies in this market. The protection is worth it.
Watch New listing volume in your target zip. When supply drops, leverage shifts fast.
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Read the full first-time buyer guide →
If I were selling

Protect your price with a strategy — not a wish.

The market still rewards sellers, but not automatically. The homes that win aren't always the fanciest — they're the ones that feel priced right and easy to say yes to.

50-60 avg days on market
-10.9% Austin city YoY inventory
$412K metro median (Feb '26)
DO THIS FIRST

Price based on today's comps — not last year's headlines

Pull sold data from the past 90 days in your zip, not list prices. Austin values have adjusted 10-18% from peak depending on the corridor. Overpricing by 5% means sitting 45+ days, then chasing the market down with price cuts — which signals distress to buyers and costs more than the original gap.

THEN

Use credits and concessions to move the deal — not price reductions

A $10K price cut gives buyers $10K. A $10K closing credit gives buyers $10K plus it lowers the appraised value they're competing against in the future. Smart concessions feel like a win for buyers without the long-term comps damage of a price drop.

Do Price it right the first week. Velocity in the first 7 days is your biggest leverage window.
Do Get a pre-listing inspection. Knowing your issues before buyers do keeps you in control.
Don't Chase the market downward slowly. Each price reduction signals desperation to buyers.
Don't Overprice because "you can always come down." In this market, you pay for that with time.
Watch Days on market is the clearest signal of who has leverage. Under 30 days: yours. Over 45: theirs.
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If I were renting

Negotiate like it's normal — because it is.

A lot of renters assume the price is the price. In many Austin pockets right now, landlords are competing harder than they were two years ago. You can often ask for better terms — without being "difficult."

$1,972 Austin median rent (all types)
$2,350-2,700 2BR average range
Vacancies up in many corridors
TRY THIS FIRST

Ask for one meaningful upgrade — rate, free month, deposit, or move-in flexibility

Do not ask for everything. Pick the one thing that matters most to you — one month free, reduced deposit, or a rate lock for 18 months — and ask for that specifically. A focused ask is easier to say yes to than a laundry list. Most landlords in buildings with multiple vacancies will negotiate.

THEN

Negotiate when they have the most motivation

Timing matters. Units that have been vacant 3+ weeks, competing buildings nearby with move-in specials, or end of month when leasing teams are trying to hit goals — these all shift leverage toward you. If you're renewing, initiate the conversation 90 days out, not 30. Earlier gives you options. At 30 days, they know you probably won't move.

Do Mention competing options you're considering. It is not a bluff if you actually looked.
Do Ask in writing (email). It creates a paper trail and tends to get taken more seriously than verbal.
Don't Wait until the last second on a renewal. 30 days out, your leverage is mostly gone.
Watch Nearby competing options. When similar units are available, negotiation gets significantly easier.
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If I were deciding

The rent vs. buy math — run it for real.

Most "rent vs. buy" calculators give you a feel-good answer. This one uses Austin's actual property tax rates and asks the question that matters: how long are you planning to stay?

Quick Estimate — Austin 2026
THE HONEST TAKE

Short timeline = rent. Long timeline = buy. The break-even is usually 3-5 years in Austin.

Buying has real costs: closing costs (2-5%), property taxes (2.1-2.4%/yr), maintenance (~1%/yr). If you're staying 3+ years and your payment is comparable to rent, the equity math usually tilts toward buying. Under 2 years: renting almost always wins on pure math. The 2-4 year zone is where your personal situation (stability, roots, flexibility) matters more than the spreadsheet.

Buy if You're staying 3+ years, your employment is stable, and the monthly payment fits at 28% of gross income.
Rent if You're uncertain about your timeline, the job, or the neighborhood — flexibility has real value right now.
Avoid Buying because you feel like you "should" or because of fear of missing out. Those are not financial reasons.
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Your Move

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